70% of Gaza Under Israeli Control: Egypt Warns Ceasefire in Jeopardy

Explainer

The hopes for a lasting peace in Gaza are once again hanging by a thread, as an Egyptian intelligence source revealed urgent diplomatic efforts are underway to prevent the collapse of the ceasefire agreement. This comes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to expand Israeli-controlled areas in the Gaza Strip from 53% to 70%, a move that mediators say directly violates the US-brokered October 2025 peace agreement.

How We Got Here

A US-brokered peace agreement was signed in October 2025, aiming to bring stability to Gaza. This deal was a culmination of Egypt's critical mediating role in previous conflicts between Israel and Hamas.

Separately, in June 2026, the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to end their conflict and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, with a 60-day window for a final deal.

Despite the existing ceasefire, Prime Minister Netanyahu recently ordered an expansion of Israeli-controlled territory within Gaza, pushing the area from 53% to 70%. This action has been met with strong warnings from Egypt.

Where We Are Now

Today, the Middle East finds itself in a precarious state, with multiple diplomatic fronts struggling to hold. Egypt is at the forefront, exerting "utmost efforts to reach a truce in the Gaza Strip and end the humanitarian crisis there," according to a senior Egyptian official who spoke to El Qahera News. This official emphasized that Egypt is in contact with all parties, including Israel and Palestinian factions, urging them to show flexibility for a ceasefire.

However, the path forward is complicated by Israel's rejection of a US-backed 15-point Gaza peace plan. Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated that Israeli forces "will not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas is truly disarmed," insisting on disarmament before any withdrawal. This directly contradicts the US plan, which envisioned Hamas gradually disarming while Israel began its withdrawal. Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has voiced strong skepticism, stating that "whoever thinks peace in the Middle East is possible before our people achieve their full right is delusional." He also rejects Washington as the sole mediator, preferring a "quartet" of international mediators.

What's Next for Diplomacy

The immediate focus remains on Egypt's intensified diplomatic efforts to restart negotiations before the end of the week. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty has affirmed that Cairo will continue its contacts with regional and international partners, including Turkey, Qatar, Iran, and the US, to push for a settlement in Gaza. These talks aim to address key issues like a ceasefire, the question of weapons, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Beyond Gaza, the broader regional stability is also in question. The interim agreement between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz is faltering, with Iran reporting "absolutely no progress" on a permanent deal. Iran's foreign minister maintains that the vital shipping route will not reopen until the US meets its demands, including compensation for damages. This ongoing tension underscores the interconnectedness of the region's crises, which analysts like Giuseppe Dentice from OSMED note are merging into a single strategic theater.

Impact on Egyptian Americans and the Wider Arab Community

For Egyptian Americans and the broader Arab-speaking immigrant community in the US, these diplomatic developments in the Middle East carry significant weight. The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, exacerbated by military actions in Rafah, directly impacts families and communities with ties to the region. Many are concerned about the unimpeded access to aid, the opening of all border crossings, and the safety of international relief teams.

It's crucial to stay informed about the official statements from organizations like the UN and the Egyptian government regarding aid efforts and diplomatic progress. You can also look for opportunities to support reputable humanitarian organizations working on the ground in Gaza. Understanding the nuances of these negotiations helps you advocate effectively and engage in informed discussions about the future of peace and stability in the region.